Week 1 picks against the spread

Find key betting trends and much more in our expert NFL picks this week.

Hello, NFL fans. The regular season is finally upon us which means that we are back making our best bets with my NFL projection model. As for my betting strategy, we ended the season poorly last year and while diving into the root causes of the struggles, over the last two seasons, my total bets have been struggling. The model has been positive the last two seasons despite these struggles and I hope we can turn it around. We are coming out of the gates firing this year.

Week 1 picks against the spread

My overall record last season was , which was just behind the collective BGN community at Here are suggestions when trying to beat the odds. But, for all his faults, Kirk Cousins has a track record of being able to beat the bad teams. And the Baker Mayfield-led Bucs are certainly no good. PICK: Vikings The Texans might ultimately be pointed in the right direction under DeMeco Ryans. But they deserve no benefit of the doubt until they prove to be any good. PICK: Ravens The 49ers have bad vibes and Brock Purdy might not be any good. Pittsburgh, meanwhile, could be poised to take a step forward with Kenny Pickett making a leap. I like the Steelers outright. That much is not difficult to envision.

According to NFL Network's Ian Rapoportthe signal-caller has trended in the right direction since recently returning for full practices. I already hate myself for typing the words, but the Broncos will win big here. In an open competition for the left tackle job, Dan Moore Jr.

We're back for the NFL season with the goal of being better than ever in a battle against the betting books. This year, in addition to picks against the spread, we'll also produce a consensus for straight-up selections for bettors who just want to place wagers on winners. Going forward, you'll be able to track our tipsters in the standings to see who's helped our audience rake in the most cash. Lines are from DraftKings as of Wednesday, Sept. Check the latest lines at DraftKings.

The NFL season has finally arrived. This year, though, we're going to switch up the formula a bit. After we went last season in our second year of picking and predicting, we're going to narrow our focus and choose our six favorite bets ATS each week. Fewer games to focus on means our winning percentage will skyrocket. The defending NFC champions will be in Foxborough in the late-afternoon slate to kick off another season of Super Bowl contention.

Week 1 picks against the spread

Last season, I went a solid But this is meant as a realistic look at the betting market, and no one can maintain a winning percentage like that. I'll happily take 55 percent every season just wish it was that easy. To be clear, I'm a journalist first and a handicapper second. I don't pretend to be a professional bettor, but I approach sports betting using the lessons I've learned covering the race and sports books in Vegas since for various publications and websites, including GamingToday a weekly Vegas newspaper , Daily Racing Form the horseplayer's bible and my own ViewFromVegas. Each week, we'll list every game along with the current spread, taking a look at the public's perception of the matchup, the wiseguys' view and then my own "take" on the game. Just like the sharps in Vegas, I don't bet every game, but rather try to pick my spots. Due to popular demand, I'll give a "pool play" for those looking for an opinion of some sort.

Hungary squad

Among that group, Darnold ranks last in both success rate and EPA per pass play. The Baltimore Ravens will host the Houston Texans in a matchup with a lot of new variables. Please make sure to shop around at various sportsbooks for the best possible number. With a defense full of young unknowns and wide receiver Cooper Kupp's status up in the air because of a hamstring injury, our experts sided with the Seattle Seahawks despite the competitive nature of division matchups. Their offensive line should dominate. Take Me Home. PICK: Ravens The Travis Kelce injury certainly hurts, but I think both defenses are going to have their hands full in this game. And I am curious to see what Flores cooks up with an undermanned defense. By submitting your email, you agree to our Terms and Privacy Notice. By Danny Heifetz , Danny Kelly , and 1 more. Aaron Rodgers looks healthy and comfortable on his new team. Filed under: NFL Picks.

Check out their Week 1 picks below.

The Colts' rookie QB may eventually hit a wall once teams have more tape on him, but he'll do enough to keep Jacksonville's defense off-balance and keep Indy in the game. Well, I think I have to break my own rule this year. Am I concerned that the entire Panthers wide receiver room is on the injury report? He's the No. Something went wrong. My general expectation is that it will work … eventually. Derek Carr should be able to lead the Saints to a comfortable home victory in this scenario. Commanders DK Line : Seattle Instead, he's intrigued by what Richardson brings to the offense. Share this story Twitter Facebook.