Metaculus

This follows our May support and falls within our work on global catastrophic risks. We metaculus this will provide Open Philanthropy, metaculus, our grantees, and many

We believe this will provide Open Philanthropy, our grantees, and many others with improved tools for effective planning in high-priority areas such as mitigating extreme risks from AI and synthetic pathogens. This follows our July support and falls within our work on global catastrophic risks. This falls within our focus area of potential This falls Close menu. Table of Contents. Related Items.

Metaculus

Metaculus is an American reputation-based , massive online prediction solicitation and aggregation engine. Three types of predictions can be made: probability predictions to binary questions that resolve as either 'yes' or 'no', numerical-range predictions, and date-range predictions. Users can earn points for successful predictions or lose points for unsuccessful predictions , and track their own predictive progress. In June , the Metaculus Prediction was launched, which is a system for aggregating user predictions. Contents move to sidebar hide. Article Talk. Read Edit View history. Tools Tools. Download as PDF Printable version. Online prediction solicitation and aggregation engine. Retrieved 22 January Retrieved 15 February Metaculus FAQ. Archived from the original on Retrieved

Out of these, metaculus, the cookies that are metaculus as necessary are stored on your browser as they are essential for the working of basic functionalities of the website. Performance Performance. Retrieved 15 February

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Online prediction markets began cropping up in the late s, focusing on everything from movie box office receipts to the outcome of presidential elections. Researchers have speculated that prediction markets are more successful when they include a diversity of informed opinions. Yet such websites are not infallible. Perhaps the most famous recent example of this was the Brexit vote in Great Britain. Prediction markets said voters would opt to remain in the European Union; instead, voters chose to leave the EU. As for Metaculus, it trains its forecasting eye on all things scientific. For example, a majority of Metaculus users correctly predicted that the LIGO research team would announce the discovery of gravitational waves by the end of March; a majority also correctly predicted that an Artificial Intelligence player would beat a professionally ranked human player at the ancient game of Go, and that physicists at the Large Hadron Collider would not discover a new, subatomic boson particle.

Metaculus

Prediction Resources. Public Data Explorer. Very large Public Data Explorer aggregates public data from dataset providers such as international organizations, national statistical offices, non-governmental organizations, and research institutions. Very Easy This is a good place to start with your search for data, since many datasets are available which are often straightforward to find. There are sometimes also great visualizations. This is perhaps the best place to look for public data and forecasts provided from third-party data providers Highly recommended also is the International Futures Forecasting Data on long-term forecasting and global trend analysis available on the Public Data Explorer. Small Our World in Data aggregates some hundreds of datasets, all of which are organized well and given appropriate context. Very Easy There are excellent visualizations. Each topic the quality of the data is discussed and, by pointing the visitor to the sources, this website is also a database of databases.

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Toggle limited content width. It does not store any personal data. This follows our May support and falls within our work on global catastrophic risks. Retrieved This follows our July support and falls within our work on global catastrophic risks. This falls within our focus area of potential Categories : Predictive analytics Prediction markets Organizations associated with effective altruism. Back to Grants Database. Other uncategorized cookies are those that are being analyzed and have not been classified into a category as yet. The cookies is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Necessary".

Metaculus is an American reputation-based , massive online prediction solicitation and aggregation engine. Three types of predictions can be made: probability predictions to binary questions that resolve as either 'yes' or 'no', numerical-range predictions, and date-range predictions.

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